Murilo Juchem

“In this paper, we identify and rank 15 extreme risks that would have a high impact on global economic growth and asset returns if they occurred.  In our view, the events of the last two years have demonstrated that risk management cannot afford to stop at the 95th percentile and that ways need to be found to factor in very unlikely, but high-impact events.

Being aware of risk in the extremes before they happen can protect value if built into a plan of action that can be implemented as soon as the need arises. We recommend that this plan can be built by combining a qualitative understanding, quantitative modelling and a cost-benefit analysis of possible strategies.“

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http://www.towerswatson.com/research/660

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Read the article:

http://blogs.gartner.com/french_caldwell/2009/10/27/are-we-using-the-right-equation-for-communicating-risks/

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“Increasingly business applications are cementing organizations into high dependency relationships with their suppliers, bound by steep exit costs and vendor copyright control of the IP.”

“So, is there a point where enterprise IT organizations will start questioning the long term value they’re receiving from these business applications? If that starts to happen what they’ll rapidly realize is that the only sustainable long-term solution is to participate in the creation of collectively-owned business application assets.”

“The fact of the matter is that most enterprise IT organizations do not look at business applications through the lens of value chain system dependency. They look at it through the lens of mitigated custom development cost.”

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http://blogs.gartner.com/brian_prentice/2009/11/03/open-source-business-apps-is-there-a-disconnect/

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“Outsourcing creates at least an “arm’s length” relationship between the retained IT organization and outsourcing staff, many of whom used to be your employees. This creates a conundrum, as people are my most important asset, yet I no longer control that asset, its development nor its investments.”

“Retain the responsibilities that drive your enterprise economics and performance.  Responsibilities for deployment, benefits realization, business process management and others unique to your operations need to stay inside rather than moving to an outsourcer.  Outsourcers may provide the army to do the work, but you need to be the generals and officers directing their work.”

“Recognize that outsourcing economics derives from standardization and scale rather than customization and service.  Outsourcers value the interchangeability of skills as they can move those skills across accounts.”

Read the article:

http://blogs.gartner.com/mark_mcdonald/2009/11/09/disposable-people-a-question-raised-in-cannes/

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“In modern times, when the Soviets tried to administer uncertainty out of existence through the government fiat and planning, they choked off social and economic progress.”

– Peter Bernstein, “Against the Gods”

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“Nothing is more soothing or more persuasive than the computer screen, with its imposing arrays of numbers, glowing colors and elegantly structured graphs. As we stare at the passing show, we become so absorbed we tend to forget that the computer only answers questions; it does not ask them…. Those who live only by the numbers may find that the computer has simply replaced the oracles to whom people resorted in ancient times for guidance in risk management and decision-making.”

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Read the article:

http://www.vincechew.com/2009/04/dont-be-doomed-by-outsourcing/

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Read the article:

http://www.pmconnection.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=40

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Technical report from SEI (Software Engineering Institute) about Risk Management in Software Projects.

Read the report:

http://www.sei.cmu.edu/pub/documents/96.reports/pdf/tr012.96.pdf

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“Keep the top ten or so risks highly visible, and track the effectiveness of your mitigation approaches regularly. As the initial list of top priority items gradually gets beaten into submission, new items may float up into the top ten. Don’t kid yourself into concluding that a risk is controlled simply because the selected mitigation action has been completed. Controlling a risk may mean that you have to change your mitigation strategy if you conclude it is ineffective. You can drop the risk off your threat-detection radar when you determine that your mitigation approaches have indeed reduced the loss exposure from that item to an acceptable level.”

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